The energy market has benefited greatly by heightened demand amidst accelerating global recovery. This has prompted a massive bullish rally on the price of crude oil, which reached the psychologically significant resistance level at 70.00.
Nevertheless, the latter represents a prominent turning point, which is why the emergence of a new bearish correction from it in the short term seems highly plausible. Such a correction is unlikely to terminate the underlying trend, which was supported recently in the wake of the latest OPEC meeting.
The latest inflation data in the U.S., which is scheduled for publication on Thursday will likely serve as a catalyst for such a dropdown. According to the preliminary forecasts, consumer prices are likely to drop by half from a month prior, which would underpin a momentary drop in aggregate demand. This would consequently be reflected on the price of crude as energy demand decreases in the short term.
Bullish commitment in the market is already falling, as demonstrated by the emergence of a massive Ascending Wedge pattern on the daily chart below. This type of pattern is typically taken to signify likely bearish reversals, which is inlined with the primary expectations.
This is especially true given the apparent convergence of the Wedge's upper boundary with the psychological resistance at 70.00. Moreover, the behaviour of the price action within the limits of the Wedge is taking the form of a 1-5 impulse wave pattern, as postulated by the Elliott Wave Theory.
The timing thus seems perfect for the development of the second retracement leg (3-4), now that the price is threading below the upper boundary of the Wedge and the 70.00 resistance. Such a correction is likely to fall to the lower end of the Wedge, which is converging towards the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 67.01.
The primary focus of this analysis is centred on the expectations for such a dropdown. A more sizable downtrend could emerge in the longer term; however, it would take much more bearish commitment in the market.
After the price bottoms out at 4, it is likely to go on developing the final impulse leg (4-5). The latter could even break out above the psychological resistance level momentarily before a more sizable bearish reversal takes place.
Notice that the ADX indicator has been threading below the 25-point benchmark since the 16th of April, which confirms the range-trading sentiment in the market that is currently prevailing. This is ideal for the execution of contrarian trading strategies, including on the expectations for a correction.
Finally, the Stochastic RSI indicator has been threading in its overbought extreme for quite a while now, which, given the raging environment, is also extremely likely to prompt the resurgence of selling pressure in the short term. Overall, there seems to be a definite confluence of mounting bearish signals in the short term.
The 4H chart below highlights the latest top at point 3. Immediately after the price touched the 70.00 benchmark, it went on to change directions yet again, leaving in its wake a Shooting Star candle. Such candles signify mounting bearish bias towards the end of an existing uptrend, which is to be expected before the emergence of a new correction.
A likely trigger for the beginning of such a dropdown would be a breakdown below the 20-day MA (in red), which is the closest floating support to the current market price. Bears should watch the behaviour of the price around the other two moving averages - the 50-day MA (in green) and the 100-day MA (in blue) - as both of them could initiate snap bullish rebounds.
At any rate, bearish momentum appears to be rising in the short term as well, as demonstrated by the MACD indicator.
There are several key developments that bears need to watch for in the very short term. The aforementioned Shooting Star candle takes the form of a Bearish Engulfing on the hourly chart below. It closed below the latest swing high at 69.40, which could be used as a reference point for placing a stop-loss order.
Notice that on this timeframe, the MACD indicator is illustrating a Divergence in the making, which highlights the accelerating bearish bias in the very short term.
Meanwhile, the price action is presently consolidating between the 50-day MA and the 20-day MA, as well as below the support-turned-resistance at 69.40. A breakdown below this minor range, underscored by the blue ellipse, would signify the likely beginning of the new bearish correction.
Bears looking to sell around the spot price should consider placing their first stop loss just above the aforementioned swing peak at 69.40. Once the price action manages to break down below the next support at 68.70 (its significance is derived from the fact that it pinpointed the preceding swing peak), bears would be able to move their stop-losses.
This support level is currently being crossed by the 100-day MA, so a decisive breakdown below it would allow bears to move their stop-losses to the second SL area.
As stated earlier, the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 67.01 signifies the first major target for such a correction. Bears are advised against trying to catch a much bigger dropdown below it, as the market is not yet ready to establish a complete trend reversal.
The price of crude oil continues to be rallying as global demand increases. This is owing to the robust growth in economic activity. The recent breakout above the psychologically significant resistance level at 70.00 represents yet another crucial stepping stone in the underlying rally.
However, with the penetration above this threshold, bullish momentum may be due for a temporary respite. If realised, this would clear the way for a minor correction towards one of the closest supports. Is it, therefore, time to consider selling the commodity?
This week's economic calendar would likely favour a dollar strengthening, which, consequently, could ease some of the bullish pressure currently exerted on the price of crude. Hence, market factors are becoming increasingly more bearish-looking; however, is this going to be enough to jolt the rally of WTI momentarily?
As can be seen on the 4H chart above, the broader market sentiment remains ostensibly bullish. This is underpinned by the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. Nevertheless, this does not preclude the possibility for a momentary dropdown towards the Cloud itself.
As stated earlier, the price broke out above the psychological resistance at 70.00 very recently, which in itself is likely to prompt a corrective downswing to the new support from above. The emergence of a Shooting Star candle, which typically entails rising selling pressure when found at a recent swing peak further confirms this.
If the price manages to break down below the 10-day MA in blue (the conversion line of the Ichimoku Cloud), then it would potentially be able to fall towards 70.50 - the first target for a new correction. The significance of this resistance-turned-support stems from the fact that it had previously served the role of a swing peak.
The second and most likely target is underpinned by the 70.00 psychological support, which converges with the lower limit of the Cloud. If, however, the correction turns out to be even deeper than that, the price of crude could fall as low as the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 69.28 before it finds the necessary support to consolidate there.
Less risk-averse traders could sell right away, but they need to place very tight stop-losses just above the latest peak. More risk-averse bears could instead wait for a bearish crossover on the MACD (the 12-day EMA crossing below the 260-day EMA) before they enter into a trade.
|Short Term||Long Term||Net % Gains|
|0.71 USD||0.36 USD||0.59 USD||1.58 USD||
|0.71 USD||0.36 USD|
|0.59 USD||1.58 USD|
|Net % Gains|
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