Insights

Opinion pieces reflecting on the hottest topics internationally
Jun 25, 2020, 8:29 AM GMT
#Politics

The US Presidential Race is Still Far from Certain

According to a poll released by the New York Times from yesterday, Joe Biden has garnered a 14-point lead ahead of Donald Trump in the polls amongst registered voters. The democratic nominee boasts 50 per cent of the votes, while the current President lags behind at 36 per cent.

While on the surface this gap in the preliminaries seems almost too wide to be traversed before the November 3rd elections, Joe Biden still has much work to do before he can become the 46th.

Where many expert opinions seem to converge is around the notion that Donald Trump's popularity amongst voters suffered immensely as a result of the President's inadequate response to the coronavirus epidemic, and also to the racial divisions that continue to split the American society. Undoubtedly, the situation in Washington looks dismal given the recent resurgence in COVID-19 cases coupled with the economic ripples that continue to plague the financial conditions in the country.

However, when it comes to the presidential elections, the situation is seldom clear-cut. It should not be forgotten that the electoral college system means that the candidate who wins the popular vote does not necessarily become the President. Case in point, Hillary Clinton's loss to Trump in 2016. And if one thing is more than clear, it is that this time the underlying division of outlooks between the electoral college and the popular vote is going to be bolstered even more than usual due to the unprecedented situation.

The role of the swing states, such as Ohio, Nevada, Minnesota, and others, is going to be even more important this November, because of the general trend of polarizing opinions that is currently being observed. The American society seems to be divided in its views on the aforementioned key issues, which means that we are likely to see stark differences in voters' preferences from state to state.

Trump still has the time and possibility to consolidate his supporters, while Biden's "bunker" strategy could backfire in the long-run. The democrat's somewhat removed approach, aimed at winning supporters from all types of societal groups, is his own huge risk, which could still cost him the Presidency in this election year marked by divisive opinions.