Markets

Breakdown of the latest developments on the global exchanges
Aug 25, 2020, 6:25 PM GMT
#Economics

US Consumer Confidence Tanks in August. The Dollar Rally Continues

The CB consumer confidence index in the US continued its trend of depreciation in August from a month prior. Consumers' confidence fell to 84.8 points from the 91.7 points that were recorded in July, said the Conference Board.

These results completely missed the consensus forecasts, which were anticipating an improvement to 93.0 index points on the gradual easing of coronavirus restrictions in the US.

The downturn in the underlying consumers' sentiment in the States is underpinned by the recent uptick in the number of filed unemployment claims, and in spite of the better-than-expected inflationary pressures that were observed in July.

Accordingly, the downbeat consumer confidence could also exemplify people's fears of a second coronavirus wave in the third quarter, which could lead to a double-dip economic contraction.

More information as to how this muted data would impact FED's projections for a protracted and uneven recovery would be presented by Jerome Powell on Thursday. The Chair of the Federal Reserve is due to deliver a speech titled " Monetary Policy Framework Review" at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Meanwhile, the muffled consumer confidence statistics did not stymie the recent rally of the dollar, which continues to be supported by reinvigorated investors' interest in the greenback.

As can be seen on the 4H chart below, the EURUSD recently fell back below the historic resistance level at 1.18800. The price action of the pair continues to consolidate below the latter after concluding a minor throwback.

Even more importantly, the price action remains concentrated below the 30-day MA (in green). A breakdown below the 10-day MA (in red) would mean heightened bearish bias in the short-term as well.

Such a relationship between the three would manifest a perfect descending order, which would entail promptly rising bearish sentiment in the market.

The minor support level at 1.17000 encompasses the next most likely target-level for the currently evolving downswing, which represents the most recent swing low.

Moreover, the MACD indicator illustrates the presently accumulating bearish momentum, which is congruent with the primary expectations for the unimpeded continuation of the downswing's development.